WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans concerned about the direction and ultimate resolution of the ongoing military conflict can take comfort this week from a wave of confident, detailed, and consistently optimistic assessments from a diverse coalition of voices, including defense contractors, prediction market investors, cable news commentators who advise defense contractors, a senator whose family trust has a significant stake in a defense contractor, and a think tank whose most recent donor disclosure lists four defense contractors, all of whom agree: things are going well, the strategy is sound, and the public should remain calm and patient.
“We are on the right track,” said General (Retired) William Barker, speaking Tuesday on a cable news panel where he was identified only as “a national security expert” and not as a board member of Apex Defense Systems, whose stock has risen 41% since hostilities commenced. “This is a complex situation that requires sustained commitment. The American people need to understand that these things take time.”
How much time, a host asked.
“Hard to say,” said General Barker. “Could be years. Possibly longer.”
Apex Defense Systems stock rose 0.4% during the segment.
The Survey Of Optimists
Supposedly News conducted an informal audit of the past week’s public statements expressing optimism about military operations, identifying 47 such statements from 31 distinct individuals. Researchers then cross-referenced each speaker with public financial disclosures, lobbying records, think tank donor lists, and board memberships.
Of the 31 individuals, 28 had a documentable financial relationship with the defense sector. Two were sitting elected officials who had received campaign contributions from defense industry PACs totaling more than $400,000 combined. The remaining individual was a retired military officer whose memoir, Victory Is A Choice, is published by an imprint owned by a media company that also owns a defense-adjacent satellite communications firm.
“That’s a pretty clean sample,” said Dr. Morris Kwan, a political economy professor at Princeton University. “I’ve been studying conflict rhetoric for 25 years and I’ve rarely seen this level of financial alignment across a set of public assessors. It’s almost elegant, in a troubling way.”
What The Other People Are Saying
For contrast, Supposedly News sought comment from individuals without documented financial stakes in the conflict’s continuation. Their assessments were, on the whole, considerably more complicated.
Retired Admiral Christine Sato, who left the Navy in 2021 and currently runs a nonprofit focused on veterans’ mental health, said the situation was “deeply uncertain” and that the public should be “cautious about consuming confident assessments from people whose compensation structure creates incentives toward optimism.”
Three independent international relations scholars described the situation using words including “precarious,” “escalatory,” and “a context in which the phrase ‘going well’ requires significant unpacking.”
A coalition of humanitarian organizations released a joint statement that did not use the phrase “going well” anywhere in its 22 pages.
These voices received approximately 14 combined minutes of cable news airtime this week. General Barker received 3.5 hours.
The Market Speaks
Defense sector indices closed Tuesday at record highs for the third consecutive week. The Prediction Market Conflict Duration Index — which allows traders to bet on how long hostilities will continue — showed majority probability weighted toward a duration exceeding 18 months, a figure traders described as “the sweet spot” before seeming to realize how that phrase lands and declining to elaborate.
“I’m not saying it’s not going well,” said one institutional defense equity analyst who agreed to speak on background. “I’m saying I have a target price that assumes it continues for at least another two quarters, and that my target price is why my clients hired me, and that my clients finding my target price correct is how I keep my job. Make of that what you will.”
Supposedly News made of it what it would. We are not sure it is enough.
This column represents the views of Douglas Allegedly and should not be taken as investment advice, military analysis, or a reason to feel fine about any of this.